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PAPERS

2018

Reforms and External Balances in Southern Europe and Ireland, in Manassas, P and Katskas D (eds), Economic Crisis and Structural Reforms in Southern Europe, Routledge, 2018.

Fiscal Discoveries and Yield Decouplings, IMF Economic Review, 65(4), pp. 704-44 [Joint with Ana Fostel and Romain Rancière]

2017
Default Premium, Journal of International Economics, 107, pp. 91-110. [Joint with Rui Mano]
Links to data:
Dataset Pre
Dataset Post

International Financial Integration and Funding: Bank-Level Evidence from Latin America

2016
Fiscal Discoveries and Yield Decouplings 
IMF Economic Review, Forthcoming
[with Ana Fostel and Romain Rancière]

Financial De-Dollarization: A Global Perspective
on the Peruvian Experience

in Yamada, G. & Winkerlried, D. (eds), 
Politica y Estabididad Monetaria en Perú, Lima.

2015
World Food Prices and Monetary Policy
Journal of Monetary Economics, 75, pp.68-88
(with Robert Chang), 75, October 2015

2014
External Liabilities and Crises
Journal of International Economics, Vol 94(1), 
pp. 18-32, 2014 (with Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti)

External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology
IMF Working Paper
WP/13/27, (with S. Phillips and others)

2013
Fiscal Discoveries and Sudden Decouplings 
CEPR discussion paper 9368
[with Ana Fostel and Romain Rancière]

World Food Prices, the Terms of Trade-Real
Exchange Rate Nexus, and Monetary Policy

IMF working paper 13/114
[with Roberto Chang]


External Liabilities and Crises
IMF working paper 13/113
[with Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti]

2012
Monetary Rules for Commodity Traders 
NBER working paper 18536
See also Journal Article in IMF Economic Review (2013)
 [with Roberto Chang] 

2011
Sudden Stops and Sovereign Defaults
2011 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics  
[with Ana Fostel and Romain Rancière]

2010
Common Factors in Latin America’s Business Cycles
CEPR Discussion Paper 7671  Also in IMF Working Paper 06/49  See also Journal Article in Journal of Development Economics (2011)
[with Marco Aiolfi and Alan Timmermann]
Download Appendix: Data Construction and Sources
Download .XLS Database

The Credit Channel and Monetary Transmission in Brazil and Chile: A Structural VAR Approach

Central Bank of Chile Working Paper 579.  Also in NCER Working Paper 53  and  Chapter version in Céspedes et al. (2011).
[with Adrian Pagan]

World Food Prices and Monetary Policy 
NBER Working Paper 16563. Also in  IMF Working Paper 10/161 
[with Roberto Chang]

2009
Financial Dependence, Formal Credit and Informal Jobs - New Evidence from Brazilian Household Data 
 Also in IZA Discussion Papers, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) (2009) View citations
[with Carmen Pages and Maria Fernanda Rosales]
 
2008
Monetary Transmission in an Emerging Targeter: The Case of Brazil
IMF Working Papers 08/191 View citations
[with Douglas Laxton and Adrian Pagan]

Persistent Gaps and Default Traps

Birkbeck Working Paper 803  See also Journal Article in Journal of Development Economics (2009)

 

2007
Persistent Gaps, Volatility Types, and Default Traps
IMF Working Paper 07/148
[with Ana Fostel and Sandeep Kapur] 

2006
Perspectives on Low Global Interest Rates
IMF Working Paper 06/76
[with Sandy Mackenzie]

Sudden Stops and Currency Drops: A Historical Look
IMF Working Papers 06/133.  View citations  See also Chapter (2007)

2004
Country and Industry Dynamics in Stock Returns
CEPR Discussion Paper 4368. Also in IMF Working Paper 03/52 
[with Alan Timmermann]

Missing Link: Volatility and the Debt Intolerance Paradox

IMF Working Paper  View citations
 [with Sandeep Kapur]

2003
Exchange Rates in the Periphery and International Adjustment Under the Gold Standard
IMF Working Papers 03/41.
[with Solomos Solomou]

Fiscal Deficits and Inflation
IMF Working Papers 03/65.  View citations  See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (2005) Download Data file: jmedata.dat
[with Marco Terrones]

Country and Industry Dynamics in Stock Returns
IMF Working Paper 03/52
{with Alan Timmermann]

2002
Sovereign Defaults: The Role of Volatility
IMF Working Paper No. 02/149.  View citations
[with Ben Sutton]

2001
Fiscal Deficits and Inflation: A New Look at the Emerging Market Evidence
IMF Working Papers 01/74.  View citations
[with Marco Terrones]

2000
Banks and Monetary Shocks in Emerging Markets - How Far Can We Go With the "Credit View"?
IMF Working Paper 00/68 View citations
{with Sergio Rodrigues]

Determinants of Dollarization - The Banking Side
IMF Working Papers 00/146. View citations
 [with Marco Terrones]

The New Economy and Global Stock Returns
IMF Working Papers 00/216. View citations
[with Robin Brooks]

1999
Determinants of Argentina's External Trade
IMF Working Paper 99/121 View citations  See also Journal Article in Journal of Applied Economics (2002)
 [with Elisabetta Falcetti] 

1998
Effective Exchange Rates, 1879-1913
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics. View citations  See also Journal Article in European Review of Economic History (2000)
[with Solomos Solomou]

Intermediation Spreads in a Dual Currency Economy-Argentina in the 1990s

IMF Working Papers 98/90, June 01, 1998

1997
Bank Credit in Argentina in the Aftermath of the Mexican Crisis: Supply or Demand Constrained?
IMF Working Paper 97/32. View citations

1995
Real Effective Exchange Rates 1870-1913: The Core Industrial Countries
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
[with Solomos Solomou]

Recession and Recovery in the United Kingdom in the 1990s: A Vector Autoregression Approach
IMF Working Papers 95/40. View citations 
[with Ramana Ramaswamy] 

JOURNAL ARTICLES

2013
Monetary Rules for Commodity Traders
IMF Economic Review 61, 52-91, 2013.
{with Roberto Chang] 

2011
Common Factors in Latin America's Business Cycles
Journal of Development Economics, 2011, 95, (2), 212-228 View citations
See also Working Paper (2010) 
[with Marco Aiolfi and Alan Timmermann]

2009
Persistent Gaps and Default Traps
Journal of Development Economics, 2009, 89, (2), 271-284 View citations See also Working Paper (2008) 2006
[with Ana Fostel and Sandeep Kapur]

Volatility and the Debt-Intolerance Paradox
IMF Staff Papers, 2006, 53, (2), 1 View citations

2007
Sudden Stops and Currency Drops: A Historical Look
in Sebastian Edwards et. al. (eds.), The Decline of Latin American Economies, NBER/ University of Chicago, 2007

2005
Effective Exchange Rates and the Classical Gold Standard Adjustment
American Economic Review, 2005, 95, (4), 1259-1275 View citations
[with Solomos Solomou]

Fiscal Deficits and Inflation

Journal of Monetary Economics, 2005, 52, (3), 529-554 View citations  See also Working Paper (2003) 2002
[with Marco Terrones]

Determinants of Argentina’s External Trade
Journal of Applied Economics, 2002, V, 19-57 View citations  See also Working Paper (1999) 
[with Elisabetta Falcetti]

 

2000
Effective exchange rates 1879 1913
European Review of Economic History, 2000, 4, (03), 361-382 See also Working Paper (1998)
[with Solomos Solomou]

1998
Mexico and Export-Led Growth: The Porfirian Period Revisited
Cambridge Journal of Economics, 1998, 22, (1), 59-78

1996
Recession and Recovery in the United Kingdom in the 1990s: Identifying the Shocks
National Institute Economic Review, July 1996 [with R. Ramaswamy]

1993
The Failure of Export–Led Growth in Brazil and Mexico
Institute of Latin American Studies Monograph series, University of London, 1993

1992
A New Wholesale Price Index for Brazil During the Period 1870-1913
Revista Brasileira de Economia, 1992, 46, (4), 519-534 View citations

Do Tratado de Probabilidade a Teoria Geral: O Conceito de Racionalidade em Keynes
Revista de Economia Política, Vol. 12, No.1, Jan/Mar 1992, pp.60-75

1990
The long-wave debate: Tibor Vasko, ed., Selected papers from an IIASA international meeting on long-term fluctuations in economic growth: their causes and consequences, held in Weimar, GDR, 1985 (Springer-Verlag, Berlin/Heidelberg, 1987) xvii+431, ISBN 3-540-18164-4, Hardback DM148.00
European Journal of Political Economy, 1990, 6, (2), 297-301

MEDIA PUBLICATIONS

O Alimento e a Guerra Cambial, Valor Econômico, 7 June 2011

Alimentos e a Política Econômica, Valor Econômico, 10 February 2011

Global Food Prices and Inflation Targeting, VOX-EU, 27 January 2011 (with Roberto Chang)

Will Food Prices Kill the Recovery?, Time/CNN, 20 January 2011

Informalidade no Brasil, Exame, July 28th, 2010

A Retomada do Crédito, Estado de São Paulo, p.8, 21 April 2010

Um Bonus da Estabilidade: O Crédito e o Emprego Formal, Valor Econômico, p.16, October 2008

The International Herald Tribune, April 9th, 2001 (article by James K. Glassman on paper The New Economy and Global Stock Returns)

The Economist, March 24th, 2001 (section “Economic Focus” on the same paper)

Down Jones International News,, April 18th, 2003 (article by John Connor on the paper Fiscal Deficits and Inflation)

Valor Econômico, June 8th, 2006 (article by Maria Clara do Prado on the paper Sudden Stops and Currency Drops: A Historical Look)

BOOKS AND CHAPTERS IN EDITED VOLUMES

The Failure of Export–Led Growth in Brazil and Mexico, Institute of Latin American Studies Monograph series, University of London, 1993

Sovereign Debt: From Safety to Default, Kolb, R. (ed.), John Wiley & Sons, 2011. Contributed chapter entitled "Default Traps" [with Ana Fostel and Sandeep Kapur].
 
Monetary Policy under Financial Turbulence, 2011, vol. 16, pp 105-144. Contributed Chapter 5, entitled "The Credit Channel and Monetary Transmission in Brazil and Chile: A Structured VAR Approach" 
[with Adrian Pagan]
 
The Decline of Latin American Economies: Growth, Institutions, and Crises, 2007, pp 243-290. Contributed Chapter 7 entitled "Sudden Stops and Currency Drops: A Historical Look" See also Working Paper (2006)
 
Volatility and Time Series Econometrics: Essays in Honor of Robert Engle, Bollerslev, T., J. Russell, and M.Watson (eds), Oxford Economic Press, December 2009. Contributed chapter “Volatility Regimes and Global Stock Returns”
[with Allan Timmermann]

OTHER IMF PUBLICATIONS

External Liabilities and Crisis Tipping Points,
Box 1.5., World Economic Outlook, 2011,

Food Price Swings and Monetary Policy in Open Economies, Box 3.2., World Economic Outllook, 2011,

Backcasting Latin America, Finance and Development, December 2007, pp.39-43.

Why Real Exchange Rates, Finance and Development, September 2007, pp.46-47

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